Charles Nenner talks about the potential of another recession in the U.S. and his Call must be taken seriously. Surging rates these days even before the beginning of the Tapering will put enormous pressure on the consumers and coupled with high gas prices his prediction can become true again.
Charles Nenner to Moneynews: US Headed for Recession and It's 'Going to Be Bad'
Monday, 19 Aug 2013
"It's going to be bad," Nenner told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.
"It's very scary because we didn't have a lot of growth and when this economic expansion is over, we're going to be in trouble," the founder and president of the Charles Nenner Research Center said.
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"We didn't leverage enough. Cycles go up, go down, take three and a half, four, five years, but if you almost don't jump up and then you're jumping down, then you've jumped down from a much lower level."
He said that "the economy is not going to do much this year. It's going to pick up a little bit next year into the third quarter and then it's going to be messy again."
The economy will be fairly stable until the end of next year, "then we're going back into recession," said Nenner, who correctly called the 2007 downturn.
He also warned that the economy faces other problems as well, such as deflation, commonly defined as a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0 percent.
"Deflation is a very serious problem we can still have to deal with and that's much worse than inflation," he said. "So my fear is deflation, not inflation. Inflation will come, it will take another three years until it starts."
He added that he doesn’t see much improvement when it comes to the nation's unemployment level.
"The problem is structural," he said. "There was a lot of outsourcing and then a lot of jobs … don't need a lot of people anymore because of the Internet and IT and all of the technology. People have to think a little bit in a different way and it's going to be very hard to get the unemployment down."
The wide-ranging interview turned to the outlook for gold. "It's a short term trade because it's going to bounce around," he said.
"Until we really have inflation coming, I don't see gold going back to the highs. It will go two and a half thousand. It's just making a bottom slowly, and we are boost[ing] longer term on gold, but it will take time."
He also discussed his outlook for stocks.
"We had a target of 1,720 on the S&P, so once we were [at] about 1,700 we sold all the stocks," he said. "The sentiment [is] too extreme. The market is very risky, so we don't go in anymore. We've been out now for the last three, four months and we're just standing aside."