Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Will Gold Use This Excuse To Build The Reversal Now? Charles Nenner Calls For Gold To Bottom In April.

  Nobody likes Gold any more. Soros is proclaiming that Gold "has failed to act as The Safe Heaven", Gold Bugs are shattered with all Gold Miners' Write Downs and Junior Miners are plain dead wood in the water without any chance of financing. It looks like BOJ and Bernanke with FED will start to print Gold any moment now and nobody has any guts to call the Bottom any more.
  We have discussed the level of 1550 in Gold price quite a few times already - we have nothing to lose and will stick our neck again. The pattern is not so apparent now as it was with Apple before our call in December, but we have a very good formation to surprise so many in the markets now. Gold actually has tested 1550 twice by now and has the chance to create the Double Bottom Reversal this time. We have quite a strong reversal candle at the second Bottom point as well. The Double Wedge of the consolidation stage has not been violated yet as well.
  Technical Analysis is more like the art and shows the probabilities of the next move, we have the very strong feeling that the next few weeks can confirm the Buy signal on Gold again. 

  US Dollar chart supports the probability for Gold to start the new Leg Up as well. Head And Shoulders Bearish Reversal was violated with US Dollar levitation from February, but now we have  a much stronger Reversal pattern - Double Top forming in US Dollar. Black Inverse Hammer Candle on the second top in US Dollar has been a powerful indicator of the reversals in the making so many times before.
  On another side of things, in particular market plays, we can see at least some bids appearing in the most beaten down juniors now, insiders are accumulating the special situation plays like TNR Gold and companies like McEwen Mining with very large short positions has been acting very interesting from March of this year with sharp rebounds on the huge volume from oversold positions.

   McEwen Mining is building up the very strong reversal with Double Bottom and First low formed in May 2012 and Second low forming now with the resent retest of Rights Offering level of 2.25 area. Should our observations be in agreement with the Mr Market's mood, McEwen Mining will depart from the misery and will take TNR Gold on the ride with it as well very soon. Los Azules Copper development can provide enough catalyst for both companies to enjoy the ride with the Gold and Junior markets reversal winds in the sails. Only the best will survive and only particular special situations like these ones will provide the necessary "cushion of safety" in these very risky propositions.
  We will throw two significant events about the timing and background for our observations here: announcement of the Direct Currency Trade between China and Australia and Charles Nenner's call on Gold bottoming in April.
  Now all situation around North Korea can be interpreted with quite an interesting twist. Just before Iraq liberation that country has decided to trade Oil in Euros. Now China will trade with Australia Directly converting Yuan into Australian Dollars and it is one of the largest Commodity markets. Add here to the picture the similar agreements with Brazil, Russia and other countries and you have if not Gold backed Yuan yet, but definitely new chapter for the Reserve Currency of Choice - US Dollar.

China and Australia in currency pact

Technician Charles Nenner on Bond Funds: Get Out Now While You Can

Apple To Break Down to 400 and Gold & Commodities To Break Out on China Move AAPL, GLD, FXI, TNR.v, ILC.v, LMR.v, RM.v, CZX.v

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