Sunday, December 23, 2007

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

In the news.

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC is buying back nearly 20 million shares, so recent reversal in trend after capitulation is for real. My last call June 2008 strike 10 was filled at 1.5USD. With more bullish forecast on metals prices Lundins must work hard in order not be bought out at recent  low valuation.

Sterling Mining SRLM.ob SMQ.v has started production from Sunshine mine as it promised. Stock was up 20% on Friday. 

TNR Gold's Los Azules property is getting more attention

TNR Gold has 25% back in right to northern part of the Los Azules property with two best holes with Cu. Lundins (family behind Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC) are getting closer to new Cu discovery in Argentina: they have invested nealy 10 million CAD into recent placement by Minera Andes MAI.v.





Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC new mine has came online.

After very bumpy ride we have finally a good news - Lundins has delivered as promised: Aljustrel has produced first concentrate.

Silverstone resources SST.V will get boost as well: silver production from Aljustrel is going to be sold to SST.v at fixed price.

Citi analysts gave a very positive picture on Gold and Metals in light of recent reinflation afforts around the globe.

 


Friday, December 14, 2007

TNR Gold TNR.v drill is on El Salto

New pictrures are posted on TNR Gold's website, drilling is well under way...

http://www.tnrgoldcorp.com/s/Argentina-PhotoGallery.asp

CEO has bouhgt more shares:


Dec 10/07
Dec 06/07
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Direct Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
15,000
$0.270
Dec 10/07
Dec 05/07
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
15,000
$0.310
Dec 10/07
Dec 05/07
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
10,000
$0.300
Dec 10/07
Dec 05/07
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
15,000
$0.315

http://canadianinsider.ca/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=tnr

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC huge call on Commodity Upside became Value Play

We can expect now completely new crowd to accumulate Lundin Mining - value players. With cash position doubling outstanding debt, P/E=7.09, stock price is below Book now and just screaming for Warren Buffet.

VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday)5:
3.71B
Enterprise Value (13-Dec-07)3:
3.60B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):
7.09
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1:
7.95

PEG Ratio (5 yr expected):
N/A
Price/Sales (ttm):
3.56
Price/Book (mrq):
0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:
3.45
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3:
6.245
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends:
31-Dec
Most Recent Quarter (mrq):
30-Sep-07
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):
38.39%
Operating Margin (ttm):
40.70%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):
9.14%
Return on Equity (ttm):
18.44%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):
1.04B
Revenue Per Share (ttm):
3.493
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):
195.90%

Gross Profit (ttm):
320.64M
EBITDA (ttm):
576.53M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):
400.31M
Diluted EPS (ttm):
1.34
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):
300.50%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):
226.28M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):
0.577
Total Debt (mrq):
114.18M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):
0.029
Current Ratio (mrq):
1.628
Book Value Per Share (mrq):
10.174
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):
427.06M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):
207.34M

Silverstone Resources SST.v to add new resources in 1st Q 2008

"Silverstone Completes Definition Drilling on the Animas-Refugio Vein, Copala Project, Sinaloa State, MexicoThursday December 13, 7:00 am ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 13, 2007 -- Silverstone Resources Corp. ("Silverstone") (CDNX:SST.V - News) is pleased to report results from 44 additional drill holes (6,288m HQ core drilling) from the company's Phase IIA drilling on the Copala silver-gold project. Copala is located 60km ENE of Mazatlan, Sinaloa State, Mexico. The assay results are for infill and exploration drilling on the Animas-Refugio vein in the Clemens-El Muerto sector. Drilling has been completed in this sector of the vein and the company will release an independent resource estimate in the 1st quarter of 2008.
Highlights
- SC-07-98 - 5.59 meters grading 1.57 g/t gold and 223 g/t silver
- SC-07-99 - 7.91 meters grading 1.10 g/t gold and 138 g/t silver
- SC-07-103 - 15.53 meters grading 0.44 g/t gold and 62 g/t silver
- SC-07-105 - 7.52 meters grading 0.87 g/t gold and 153 g/t silver
- SC-07-110A - 13.9 meters grading 0.63 g/t gold and 145 g/t silver
- SC-07-125 - 4.0 meters grading 1.67 g/t gold and 214 g/t silver"

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

TNR Gold TNR.v Los Azules drilling has commenced

Minera Andes announces drilling commences at Los Azules copper project TSX: MAI
NASD-OTCBB: MNEAF
SPOKANE, WA, Dec. 11 /CNW/ - Minera Andes Inc. (TSX: MAI; US OTC: MNEAF)
is pleased to report a planned 10,000 meter, 24 hole drilling program has
commenced on the Los Azules porphyry copper project as part of the 2007-2008
exploration program. The exploration program at Los Azules is designed to
define an inferred resource and provide sufficiently detailed engineering and
technical information to allow the completion of an economic scoping study (a
Preliminary Assessment as defined by NI 43-101) of the property by mid next
year.
Minera Andes is advancing the Los Azules project under an option
agreement (see news release dated November 14, 2007) with Xstrata Copper, one
of the commodity business units within Xstrata plc (London Stock Exchange:
XTA.L and Zurich Stock Exchange: XTRZn.S). The scope and size potential of the
project increased dramatically in 2006 when Minera Andes drilling discovered a
near surface high-grade area of copper mineralization when AZ-06-19
encountered 221 meters of mineralization averaging 1.62 percent copper that
was 200 meters from hole AZ-06-20 containing 173 meters of 1.00 percent
copper. (Both holes are on TNR Gold's property S). Drilling in several holes ended in copper mineralization, including
two holes that bottomed in high-grade copper over 1 percent. This field season
an aggressive program is designed to define the size and scope of the entire
Los Azules copper target.
Allen Ambrose, president of Minera Andes said, "Over the past few field
seasons the drilling at Los Azules has discovered new high-grade copper
mineralization as we gain an understanding of this exciting project. Los
Azules is evolving as a sizeable porphyry copper target, with a high-grade
near-surface copper discovery at its core that is still open at depth."
During the last few years more than half the drilling to define a copper
resource has been completed and drilling will continue this field season over
the known area of leachable (chalcocite) and sulfide (chalcopyrite) copper
mineralization as currently defined. The area to be drilled covers
approximately 2.5 kilometers by 0.9 kilometers within the enriched copper
target currently identified at Los Azules that is about 3.3 kilometers long
and 0.9 kilometers wide. Holes will be drilled at a nominal grid spacing of
200 meters east-west and 400 meters north-south. Where needed fill in holes
will be drilled on the 200 meter north-south grid lines.
Drilling has commenced on the northern half of the mineralized copper
target and will also include infill drilling on the southern half of the
target. The holes will be drilled to a depth of approximately 350 meters. This
drilling will test a known area of leachable (chalcocite) and sulfide
(chalcopyrite) copper mineralization currently defined by 26 drill holes.

TNR Gold TNR.v Eureka and Los Azules update

"VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Dec. 10, 2007) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News; PINK SHEETS:TRRXF - News) is mobilizing geophysical crews and project equipment to its Eureka Project, a copper-gold prospect located in the Jujuy province of Argentina.
The planned 3D IP survey will be conducted over the historic Eureka mine to determine if the known area of flat lying copper rich beds can be geophysically traced and detected further at depth. Only 70 metres of the 450 metre deep, prospective Eureka formation has been explored to date. If a correlation is present then the survey will be conducted over the initial 8 square km target area previously identified by Minera Penoles, and then further extended to cover the entire property.
EUREKA PROJECT
The 10,192.34 hectare Eureka property is located in the northwest corner of Jujuy Province in northern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia. The property is accessible from the provincial capital of San Salvador de Jujuy, approximately 4 hours to the south, and easy access within the property by a series of gravel roads. For further information please visit our website at http://www.tnrgoldcorp.com/.
UPDATED WEBSITE FOR TNR
TNR has recently completed the redesign of their website which is tailored to the investment community. The site contains extensive information about the Company and TNR invites you to visit the site at www.tnrgoldcorp.com."
There is interview of Minera Andes MAI.v CEO on
he is talking about Los Azules as " 6-10 bil lb Cu target" and new drilling next week on the property. TNR Gold has 25% back in rights for half of the property.

Sunday, December 09, 2007

How to Play Commodities, Gold and Silver Market from this consolidation stage. CS

As usual here are only my thoughts - in order to convert them into money you need discipline, desire to learn and action. One small obstacle before you will proclaim yourself next Sir Warren - you need capital. If you are looking for bets to leverage your house upon these ideas are not for you. Never play with your house or even lunch money.
To read further you should buy my reinflation approach: all markets are oversold, managed devaluation of USD is the only cure from complete financial disaster in USA, in order to resolve dead freeze in the credit markets all central banks are pumping liquidity like crazy. Debase of USD will provide solid support for all Hard Assets; Gold and Silver as store of real value will benefit the most. The good news here are that now all governments joined the game after Canada's and Bank of England rate cut. People will realise that game of musical chairs: who will devalue most to protect the export trade will left no single "solid" FIAT currency, inflation is eroding value of currency, any increase in money supply is inflation. Now we are talking about bail out of the housing sector in USA, it means huge moral and financial hazard in form of easy credit one more time. I still think that China stock market will correct 20%-30% from here just to get to the solid uptrend line. But do not confuse yourself with crash in the market and China's economy. It is planed economy: all those bridges, roads, ports and power stations are planed. They will always punish foreigners and even domestic speculators by cooling the market, but will never let their Bull in Infrastructure to stop. It is the only defence against USA losing its World Power status and against poor rural people of China's upraise. If flag ship of "free trade" is talking and making bail out of poor Friends from Wall Street (I hope you are not seriously thinking that somebody is taking care about fox from Alabama, otherwise buy treasuries), what will prevent China from use its 1.5 trillion reserve mostly in paper USD nominated assets? I do not take End of The World approach here: before it will happen you will be able to lose your capital few times, so stay concentrated.
Next most exiting gains will be realised in Junior mining sector, which is extremely oversold now and providing very good Entry point. Junior mining is very small, risky and volatile sector, but it is exactly what you need to make money.
Junior mining cycle is well described in latest Sanu Resources SNU.v presentation visit their site. We need trusted management, initial resource base and their ability to rase money and extend resources. If it is exploration company without any NI 43-101 resources it is more risky play, but pay off in case of discovery will be handsome. To increase your chances go for management with proven track record, exploration on old mine camps closed due to low prices and historical resources, which hopefully could be confirmed. You have double leverage of rising underlining commodity price and increasing resources base. Recent problems with Nova Gold have shown that marginal economic projects will stay marginal, rising cost of building mine and of production will put them again on hold before higher commodity prices. It is a good thing if you do not own this stocks, it means that all that excess supply will never materialise, you can not switch your decision to build mine like traders are changing their mind: it is billions of dollars and 7-10 years of hard work. So this lesson teach us that we should always diversify in this field and go for political risk in order to reduce technical risk: not so many discoveries are made, not every one of them will become a mine. My own track record with Tenke Mining TNK.to is providing support for my educational efforts. I was blessed to accumulate starting from 0.9CAD and this last April it was bought out by Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC for 25CAD. Now I think Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC is presenting itself very interesting take over play. I will mention few companies here, disclosure: I have positions in all of them. Search my blog for more information availible. Almost all of the mentioned companies updated their presentation, study before making any move.
TNR Gold TNR.v - very risky long term hold position - call on Gold and Commodities upside without time decay: no resources yet other then historical, but recent developments are very interesting. Management has changed strategy and will explore most promising properties in Argentina by themselves: namely El Salto is under drill now, Eureka and El Tapau will be early in next year. Los Azules property is going into feasibility stage and operator Minera Andes MAI.v has started new drilling programme. Now they have found serious money supporting their new strategy, more institutions are coming on board via Pasific International. Management is buying themselves and new website is showing serious investment relations approach. Recent spike and going into accumulation stage is presenting very good Entry point and was due to unfolding 5mil shares position of Tenke Mining which was transfered into Lunding Mining. Lundin Mining has position in Suramina Resources SAX.to which is concentrating their efforts on Cerro Cuadrado project, more below. Hari Varshney has came on Board of TNR Gold, his family is behind Mantle Resources MTS.v backed by Lundins. Needless to say now after all words sad drill results will matter and mineralisation hit at El Salto could change the stock overnight.
Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC - take over play in basic metals sector. Very good Entry point now with Zinc, Lead and Copper under pressure due to world wide recession fears. Recent and coming Fed rate cuts will propel commodities prices further, resolving of Congo Tenke Fungurume will catalyst new Bull Leg Up here, new mine Aljustrel is coming into bottom line as well. It is best commodity mix in the Old world: Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni in Europe with huge calls on Cu-Co in Congo and Zn in Russia.
Silverstone Resources SST.v - new Silver Wheaton SLW in the making. Just recently PP of 50 million was done at 2.9 CAD almost overnight. Now you can buy below Big Guys who are trying not to miss second chance. Lundin Mining and Capstone Mining CS.to are holding 38% of the company between themselves. Call on Silver without time decay. Aljustrel put into production by Lundin Mining will ignite the new run and market is waiting what recent financing was made for: new silver stream is in the making for sure and this recent bearishness is the best time to strike a good deal.
Sterling Mining SRLM.ob SMQ.v - famous Sunshine mine is coming into production again. Impressive resources are now confirmed by NI 43-101 and management promise to start the mine by Xmas. It did not came without the price: few recent financings put Fully Diluted float into over 50 mil shares and put stock under pressure - it is now very good Entry point to play this metamorphose into Silver producing company. Watch the video on site.
Suramina Resources SAX.to - another Lindin play on South America this time. The company took all SA assets after Lundin Mining take over of Tenke Mining. Recently resources at Jose Maria were increased. Company now is very active on the border of Argentina and Chile on new Cerro Cuadrado discovery silver-lead-zinc. Vicuna is a copper-gold porphyry and third major project at the moment. Go to http://www.caseyresearch.com/freeResearch.php
register for Exploration league and read interview with CEO Patricio Jones. The guy was behind Bajo de la Alumbrera and Veladero discovery and development. He is talking about Argentina and "Cerro Cuadrado is going to be a mine"
Avino Silver and Gold Mines ASM.v - Regarding AVINO Silver ASM.v I am still holding the position, this is the long shot: I am dissapointed with their progress, looks like they need new blood to get the full potential. Now at this level only their infrastructure cost more then market cap: all resources are "free". Problem here is that they never reported new resource estimations: results are good, grade is OK, but we need resources and final push out in this company. General for Silver December will be ignited month in new Leg up according to my charts.
Continuum Resources CNU.v - has took a hit recently when they was not able to establish J/V on their optioned property Natividad in Mexico. Now stock is traded at level below latest PP and only value in San Jose property where Fortuna Silver is operator accounted for. Among shareholders are Sprott with 19%, Agnico-Eagle with 15.3% and Fortuna Silver with 8%. Any positive change in Natividad status will push stock higher. Market is not giving any value to their other properties in Mexico.
Sunridge Gold SGC.v - is a Lundin Mining strategic investment in Eritrea Africa. Lundin Mining owns 16% of the company. Just recently company issued encouraging "Sunridge Gold Announces Indicated Resource Estimate For Emba Derho Vms Deposit"
"Sunridge Gold Corp. (SGC/TSX.V) announces an initial NI 43-101 compliant independent resource estimate for the Emba Derho zinc-copper-gold volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) deposit, on its 100% owned Asmara Project, Eritrea. This estimate is almost entirely in the "Indicated" category, with the total combined Indicated resources in the primary zinc and copper zones containing 1.7 billion pounds of zinc, 735 million pounds of copper, 402,000 ounces of gold and 15 million ounces of silver. The deposit is still open, particularly to the northwest. The estimate meets the Company's stated objectives in terms of size, average grade and the potential for a large open-pit operation."
Mantle resources MTS.v - another Lundin Mining strategic investment with just under 10% participation.
“Mantle Resources Inc.’s Akie deposit is a sedimentary exhalative (“SEDEX”) zinc-lead-silver deposit formed during one of the great ages of zinc mineralization. Another SEDEX zinc-lead-silver deposit of the same age that formed under very similar geological conditions to Akie is the 'Giant' Red Dog deposit, operated by Teck-Cominco and located in the Brooks Range of northern Alaska. Red Dog is the largest zinc mine in the world and is one of the largest accumulations of zinc+lead mineralization – more than 32 Mt contained zinc+lead metal.”
- Neil O’ Brien, Senior Vice-President of Exploration and Business Development, Lundin Mining Corp.
Lawrence Roulstone:

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Commodity Bull is Alive and Well

Reinflation is devaluing currencies, Hard Things are going up in value, all excess in Supply will never materialise when prices are going down. Look at Nova Gold they have to put project on hold because of escalating cost. Almost all projects accounted for Supply increase are running late and with CAPEX increased. Reinflation is hitting Miners as well, they will push their prices higher as cost of mine development and production rises.

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC is at Buy.


Orchestrated rate cuts by Canada, Bank of England and coming rate cut by FED means only one thing: more and more liquidity. Where all these money will end up? Most part will come as payment for goods in China and Oil producing states, they will buy commodities to build infrastructure, silver to produce electronics, gold and silver to protect their wealth from FIAT currencies going down in value with great REINFLATION CYCLE.

Friday, December 07, 2007

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume is confirmed

Thats what we have been waiting for, Xmas present...
"FCX assured by DRC that huge Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt project is secure
The President of the DRC has given Freeport-McMoRan’s Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt project the go-ahead, personally reassuring the company that Tenke’s contract will not be terminated.Author: Steve JamesPosted: Thursday , 06 Dec 2007
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
Congo President Joseph Kabila personally assured Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold that the company's huge copper/cobalt mining project in the country will not be canceled, its chief executive said on Wednesday."

""I met recently with the president of the country and he encouraged us to move ahead fast," Freeport-McMoRan CEO Richard Adkerson said after a presentation to Wall Street analysts. "He gave assurances no arbitrary steps would be taken."
A company spokesman confirmed president visited its headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona, in October during a U.S. trip when he was welcomed to the White House by President George W. Bush."

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/11/lundin-mining-lunto-lmc-tenke-fungurume.html

TNR Gold TNR.v New Web Site is out.

"TNR Gold Corp., trading on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol TNR, is a diversified junior Canadian mineral exploration company with a specific focus on exploring for precious and base metals in North and South America.TNR's goals are:
To continue to foster work on its large portfolio of precious and base metal projects in Argentina and Alaska
To identify new high-potential projects
To develop strategic partnerships with mid-tier and major companies which will enable the advanced development of its asset base
To establish long-term cash flow through royalty interests and project development"
Looks pretty nice to me: all information is in one place. Stock is bottoming out, insiders are buying, drilling is underway: any positive news from El Salto will launch this rocket.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Gold And Silver mining shares Buy Signal

Previous Major Top in HUI and XAU was market by Top in traffic to kitco.com web site. Recent Major bottom in August is market by Recent Bottom in traffic figure. Now interest is rising again. For any market to go up in its valuation you need new buyers, new money coming in. Interest and following the Gold Story is a first sign that the Crowd is coming back.

US Dollar long term chart

Courtesy of Jim Sinclair web site:

http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5506_Nov2107USD-RustyBayonet.pdf

We have long time to go in this Bull market for gold, silver and commodities.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

TNR Gold Eureka property Land Extension.

Looks like management is busy with grabbing all land around historical resource of 50 to 60 Mt of 1% Copper. Resource is not compliant with NI43-101 and strategy to "keep it quet" definitely works: you will not be able to buy 5,403.85 Ha of land for 15000USD once first drill will hit mineralisation. Guys have it to Kitco: first time I saw news there today: story is getting interesting...

"TNR SIGNS LETTER OF INTENT ON ADDITIONAL LAND ADJACENT TO EUREKA PROPERTY"

TNR Gold Corp. (“TNR”) is pleased to announce it has signed a letter of intent for a six month option to acquire 100% of an additional 5,403.85 hectares at Eureka, for a one time fee of US$15,000, which if exercised will bring TNR’s holdings to a total of 10,192.34 hectares.

If TNR does not exercise this option by June 1st, 2008 it shall have a right of first refusal on the additional 5,403.85 hectares to June 1st, 2009. The additional ground is adjacent to the original land claim and covers an area of favourable conglomerate rock which hosts the Company’s Eureka project.

EUREKA PROPERTY

Exploration on the project is ongoing for the rest of 2007. The goal of this program is to define precise targets for drilling and trenching for further exploration activity. TNR’s program will include geochemical sampling, geological mapping and geophysical surveys throughout the area. The work will also include re-opening and cleaning out a historical adit located on the property which is presently in progress.

The property contains over 5 km of historic underground workings. In addition, a drill program in the area of the adit will be implemented to test the continuity and extent of the mineralized horizons. Only 70 metres of the 450 metre deep, prospective Eureka formation has been explored to date which leaves much exploration upside potential of the property. In a 2000 report, Minera PeƱoles geologically estimated a potential of 50 to 60 Mt @ 1% copper in oxides based on surface workings, trenching, underground sampling and the assumed continuity of the near surface mineralized beds at Eureka (Geological and exploration data and estimates contained herein are taken from historical records that predate NI 43-101 and/or from later reports not intended for use within the jurisdiction of NI 43-101. Although, TNR has no reason to doubt the accuracy of this data, a Qualified Person has not yet verified them. {Chapman 2007-TNR’s NI 43-101 compliant report posted on sedar.com}).

The 10,192.34 hectare Eureka property is located in the northwest corner of Jujuy Province in northern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia. The property is accessible from the provincial capital of San Salvador de Jujuy, approximately 4 hours to the south, and easy access within the property by a series of gravel roads. For further information please visit our website at http://www.tnrgoldcorp.com/
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD,
“Gary Schellenberg”

Gary Schellenberg
President

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Very good article on Zinc, Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC and Mantle Resources MTS.v

I am following this Blog and found it very interesting:

http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/

You can find a lot of information on Roxmark Mines RMK.v and some info on Mantle Resources MTS.v.

Royal Gold RGLD is at Buy Daily

Royal Gold RGLD move usually is an early indicator of Gold move, it has developed yesterday very strong Bullish White Hammer Candle, Slow STO is Oversold, MACD will develop Buy signal should the move to upside continue, RSI is turning positive.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Assestment. CS

Risk comes when you do not know what you are doing.

I will run some numbers later.
Bullish case for Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC in the Big Picture:
1. You are making Money when you are buying undervalued assets with near term catalyst for realising their true value.
2. You are making Big Money when "nobody wants it" and there is blood on the street.
3. You are making money when your house is safe and You Are Not on Margin: nobody can force you to Sell at Loss.
4. You are happy when your precious asset is going down in price only in One case - when you can Buy more.
5. In Lundin Mining Case you have invested because:
- You think that the US Dollar is shrinking in value, powers are shifting and Demand will be there even with USA already in recession and Chinese stock market crashed 50%. You do think so because you know that China is Planed economy with huge amount of USD paper asset which they are happy to exchange for the real goods. You have checked Shippers Talks - they are pointing to higher Demand in 2008 for all raw materials. You know that Chinese Market is still a fraction of Chinese economy and its "crash" of 50% will only put it on solid uptrend line. You think that this blip will not prevent Chinese Government from race with time: they need leap frog in building infrastructure in order to prevent aggression and attempt to democratisise them as well as to ease tensions inside the society and by urbanisation move unstable classes from poverty into New Middle Class Consumers of their own Chinese products. They have for this 1.5 trillion USD IOU from bankrupt state which by accident are still accepted in some parts of the world. This is the only positive scenario for me in the world of shifting powers: that rising powers will become quickly confident in order to prevent stupid attempt to nuke them. Once reality will be accepted: Multypolar World will become evident. Reality will be difficult to accept: it means that Average standard of living in the Western world will need to come down and Eastern World will rise. Standard of living means not amount of Credit Cards, but amount of available for consumption energy and commodities. You can fool your citizens about value of the dollar, rich have all means to diversify, how can you diversify if you are living from cheque to cheque? But you can not fool yourself: real wealth is not IOU of the bankrupt state but Real Assets which you can use to build productive assets, by raw materials, feed your workers, give them part of the profit to make them happy and then Store your Surplus Capital in Ultimate Value: Gold ans Silver before you will make another investment decision.
- You have taken into account that recent drive down on Zinc price was caused by increased Chinese export due to Reduction of Export Subsidaries which is actually indicating Strong Demand from China for the product.
- You know that Lundin Mining has the right mix of commodities to satisfy your Big Picture approach: Zinc - you need it for all white goods and cars, bridges, skyscrapers and pipelines. Copper - it is Energy, energy, energy. Lead - it is cars, millions of them. World did not noticed but people still need fridges, microwaves and cars, only one new thing: it is not in Arizona but in Shanghai.
- You know that main production assets of Lundin Mining are in stable boring Europe and even they are trading with discount to Real Value. There is no Credit for Huge Tenke Fungurume and Ozernoe deposit in the price at all.
- You have read latest release and satisfied that management is investing in existing Assets in order to increase production, putting another mine into production this year and cutting operational cost combining and eliminating six offices (economy of scale).
- You like to Buy below owners of the company, you are not so stupid to think that you can know something better then them in their business. Buying at 9.5 CAD you will feel better by 2.5 million on their recent 2 mil purchase at around 12 CAD.
- You have run the numbers and decided that it is a real bargain considering all the above.

New Company and Tenke Fungurume presentations:
P.S. Guys are in a very difficult position: they can not Promote Tenke too much untill DRC will confirm their project status: hint is that Latest Drilling was never reported, before "people have talked" about three times bigger resource (it will not be revealed by recent drilling but magnutued of potential), they have 30% cap on increase in investment with FCX. This is the catalyst.
P.S. Insiders are buying again at 9.57CAD
Colin Benner is Vice Chairman of the Company

Saturday, November 17, 2007

TNR Gold Corp.: Los Azules Property Update

Another good news: management will not let this one to pass by...Prefeasibility is right under way.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 16, 2007) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News; PINK SHEETS:TRRXF - News) is pleased to report that Minera Andes Inc. ("MAI"), the operator on the Los Azules property, plans to start its next phase of drilling within 30 days. MAI has also executed a definitive option agreement with Xstrata Copper covering the Los Azules porphyry copper project in San Juan province, Argentina. This information has been derived from a news release issued by MAI, the project operator, on November 14, 2007.

TNR's option with Xstrata consists of approximately 20,000 acres located adjacent to the northern border of MAI's Los Azules property. TNR granted Xstrata Copper an option over 100% of the property, subject to a 25% back-in right in favour of TNR.
Drill results from MAI's 2006 campaign at Los Azules confirmed significant high-grade copper on the property. An 11-hole drill program returned intervals up to 1.62% copper over 221 metres and 1% copper over 173 metres in separate holes, both of which are on the Xstrata optioned property.
Map of the property:

TNR has a 25% back in clause on the property if a feasibility study is completed within 3 years of the exercise of the option, subject to payback of two times the expenditures on the property. If TNR backs in for 5% or less then its interest will convert to a 1% net smelter royalty. TNR maintains a strategic land position in the area."

Friday, November 16, 2007

TNR Gold New Presentation and El Salto drilling is announced.

New Presentation is now availible on TNR Gold's website:

http://www.tnrgoldcorp.com/

With latest news about El Salto drilling Xmas will be interesting on this one:

TNR Gold Corp.: 3,000 Metre Drill Program to Commence at El Salto

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 16, 2007) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News; PINK SHEETS:TRRXF - News) is pleased to announce that mobilization of equipment and drill site preparation is underway on its 100% optioned El Salto project in Argentina. The minimum 3000 metre drill program is planned to commence next week.

Several well defined targets will be drilled in this initial program which is expected to be completed within 4 - 6 weeks. The drill program will test a large chargeability anomaly delineated by a recently completed 3D IP survey (approximately 40 line-km), which in part is coincident with the known copper and molybdenum geochemical anomalies on the surface.
TNR has completed a reconnaissance mapping/prospecting and sampling program during the 2007 field season. The results of the program, and historical data suggests the property is predominantly underlain by sedimentary (quartzite, arenite) and mafic volcanic (basalt) sequences, which have been intruded by intrusions of gabbro and granite to granodiorite. The chargeability anomaly resulting from this IP survey is coincident with the margins of two exposed feldspar-phyric granitic bodies intruding the sedimentary rocks in the northern and southern parts of the property.
A total of 216 rock chip/grab and 20 stream-sediment samples were collected in a 2007 field season and sent to Alex Stewart Assayers (ISO9002) in Argentina for multi-element analyses. The rock chip/grab samples yielded anomalous to highly anomalous copper values ranging from 500 ppm to 4000 ppm (72 samples) and one sample assayed greater than 10,000 ppm. A vuggy silica float sample assayed 4.23 g/t gold and 11.7 g/t silver and is strongly anomalous both in arsenic (4096 ppm) and antimony (445 ppm)."

TNR Gold TNR.v Los Azules Copper Discovery Update, Minera Andes MAI.to, Xstrata.

Minera Andes signs definitive agreement at Los Azules copper project with Xstrata Copper

"SPOKANE, WA, Nov. 14 /CNW/ - Minera Andes Inc. (TSX: MAI; US OTC: MNEAF) is pleased to report that a definitive Option Agreement has been executed by Minera Andes and Xstrata Copper regarding the Los Azules porphyry copper project in San Juan province, Argentina. The Option Agreement consolidates into one package adjoining properties that straddle a large copper porphyry system."
"Under the Option Agreement, MASA has the right to earn a 100% interest in Xstrata Copper's property by spending at least US$1.0 million on the property by November 2010, making payments to keep the property in good standing and producing a preliminary economic assessment (to NI 43-101 standards). If in the opinion of Xstrata Copper, the preliminary assessment shows the potential to economically produce 100,000 tonnes (200 million pounds) of contained copper per year for 10 years or more then Xstrata Copper will have a right to earn a 51% interest in the combined properties (the "Back-in Right")."
Minera Andes made sure that their agreement is valid with Xstrata Copper before new round of drilling. Looks like they are sure that Xstrata will have economic intention to exersice the back in right.
Should I remind that TNR Gold holds back in rights of 25% with Xstrata on Los Azules property and two best intersections are on TNR Gold's land.

"Xstrata AgreementMinera Andes owns a 100 percent interest in its land that makes up the southern half of the property. The Xstrata lands (see map) are subject to a letter of intent whereby Minera Andes has the right to earn a 100 percent interest in Xstrata's property by spending at least US$1.0 million on the property over the next four years, making payments to keep the property in good standing and producing a preliminary economic assessment (to NI 43-101 standards). If the preliminary assessment shows the project to be potentially economically viable at a potential production rate of 100,000 tonnes (200 million pounds) of copper per year for 10 years then Xstrata will have a one time back-in right to earn a fifty one percent interest in the combined properties by making a cash payment to Minera Andes of three times Minera Andes' expenditures on the property, completing a bankable feasibility study within five years and assuming underlying property commitments. In the event that the preliminary assessment does not meet the size criterion contemplated above, Xstrata's interest would reduce to a first right of refusal on any subsequent sale of the property. All lands that make up the property's mineral applications are subject to a provincial mouth of mine royalty of between zero and three percent. This royalty will be negotiated with the province of San Juan as the project advances. The Xstrata lands to be acquired by Minera Andes are subject to two underlying agreements. The first agreement covering approximately 1,400 hectares has remaining payments totaling US$845,000 to acquire a 100 percent of these lands. The second agreement (WITH TNR GOLD Sufiy), covering the remainder of the Xstrata lands contains underlying payments totaling US$410,000, a US$1.0 million work commitment and a 25 percent buy back clause if a feasibility study is completed within 3 years of Xstrata/Minera Andes exercising the option to acquire the property, subject to payback to Xstrata/Minera Andes of two times the expenditures on the property. If the vendor buys back 5 percent or less there interest will convert to a one percent net smelter royalty."
TNR Gold Corp New Presentation:

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Recent developments

All markets are oversold now: Lundin Mining is making Double Bottom after ER.

Profit is taken on PUTs:
QQQQ
DIA
SPY
HHH
RIMM
AAPL
GOOG
SMH

Calls on LMC are established.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

TNR Gold TNR .v new kids of the block: new Entry point.

There is a very good entry point now in this early stage exploration play in Argentina.
I am holding the position in this one, it is still very risky, but potential could be worth it.
Web site with new update on all properties is on the way. Latest PP was at 0.2 CAD, after that some guys accumulated serious positions. RAB Capital, Barrick Gold, Nova Gold are shareholders. Financial institutions are accumulating via Pacific International Vancouver, they ran the latest PP. Insiders are holding more then 30% and buying.
Resent drop in price is connected with liquidating of position by Lundin Mining which has received it from Tenke Mining after acquisition. They are not interested in Argentina and sold it into the market after price of TNR Gold increased from 0.2 CAD in August to 0.72 CAD last Tuesday. Insiders were buying again and stock holds very well important level of 0.4 CAD. Once the selling pressure will be out stock will resume its upward momentum with news on exploration activity.
Main Assets:
Argentina 16 properties
Most interesting:
1. EL Salto - drilling is underway Gold-Copper-Moly target.
2. Eurika - Copper historical resources of 50-60 mln t 1% Cu (not 43-101!) drilling next year.
3. EL Tapau - Gold drilling next year.
Company has changed its strategy and will advance these properties by itself, keeping upside of discovery.
4. Los Azules back in rights from Xtrata: Minera Andes MAI.v is operator with two best holes of Cu discovery on TNR Gold property, more search the blog.
5. Other properties are in J/V with Tenke Mining (part is optioned to CVRD), Latin America Minerals, La Mancha.
6. Alaska: Shotgun 1 mil Au oz historical, Winchester zone discovery - 50% with Nova Gold as partner.
More info for your DD:
CEO interview:

Subprime Economy

No commets, hold onto your Juniors:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAwvlDJgJbM


I am always telling you to Buy in Goldies, Juniors and Commodities.

We will be buying back into USA when this guy will be elected.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Congo Press Release


DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
PRESS RELEASE
06 November 2007

Statement by DRC Government Concerning Recent Market Speculation


The DRC Ministry of Mines notes the recent speculation concerning the outcome of the Licence Review Commission.

The speculation is not based on any official document, but on a leak of an early draft from within the Commission. The government deplores the leaking of this draft and the uncertainty that it has understandably created.

Martin Kabwelula, the DRC’s Minister of Mines, said this morning:

"The review process has been damaged by this grossly misleading leak of information, but the DRC remains determined to manage the license review responsibly and to the benefit of all responsible companies.

“It is expected that, after all irregularities have been corrected, the great majority of companies currently in the DRC will remain in the country for the long term. This has been and will remain the position of the government.”

-end-

For further information please contact:
Roger Carroll/ Helen Tarbet
Bell Pottinger 0207 861 3232

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Lundins bought another 2 million shares

Stock is forming a nice double bottom on the chart and is close to another Buy.
Situation in Congo will be resolved smoothly in the nearest future: Kabila can not allow to damage his investment "status" with big companies, alterations could be made, but they FCX will stay. Once uncertainty will go away discount on Congo assets will be much lower, stock price will rebound.
Regarding earnings: will Lundins be buying 2 million shares if something were wrong? I really doubt so.

Monday, November 05, 2007

Rainy River RR.v Intersects a 4.0-Metre Wide Semi-Massive Sulphide Horizon Grading 25.67 g/t Au and 184.14 g/t Ag in Step Out Hole South of ODM Zone

This is what I called High grade in my previous post:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 5, 2007) - Nelson W. Baker, President and CEO of Rainy River Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:RR - News) is pleased to report that partial assays have been received for NR07198, a 2000-metre drill hole which is currently in progress and is designed to test the ODM/17 Zones and the 433 Zone well down dip from the known gold mineralization. In the upper part of the hole, semi-massive to massive sulphide bands consisting of pyrite-chalcopyrite-sphalerite hosted in sheared metavolcanic rocks were intersected in a new mineralized horizon occurring 400 metres south and stratigraphically above the ODM/17 Zones. This hole was spotted 100 metres west of NR07-121 and is the most southerly hole drilled by the Company on the project to date. The new zone is characterized by unusually high silver values."
So now we have extension to the target and Silver play as well.

Continium Resources CNU.v Update

Continuum releases results for latest phase of drilling at Natividad Prospect and posts updated 43-101 report on SEDAR
"The Company also announces the completion of an updated NI 43-101 report detailing the results of the geological, geochemical, and drilling programs completed to date at Natividad. The full report can be viewed on SEDAR (http://www.sedar.com/). These results and the updated 43-101 report will be used in evaluating the economic potential of the deposit and help formulate an exploration plan once work recommences.
Negotiations are ongoing between Continuum (70% owner of Natividad) and Cia Minera de Natividad Y Anexas (30%) to set the terms of a joint venture for the Natividad properties and assets." Once this issue will be resolved stock will finish its consolidation.

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume Update

I would like to thank my reader about another confirmation on Kabila's visit to FCX facilities.
I think we are on a good track to receive positive news confirming finalisation of agreement between FCX and Gecamines. Report should be finalised in next two weeks.
Please do not be confused with:
"If you will insist my advise will be only to read CS and that if you are on a margin or have put your house in ANY stock in the market SELL immediately. In all other cases obtain all information and then entertain yourself with your own thoughts and decisions."
This is my general position: never trade your house or be on margin for ANY STOCK in the Universe.
"Congo president tours Morenci mine
His Excellency President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Joseph Kabila visited Freeport-McMoRan’s Phelps Dodge Morenci Mine on Tuesday.President Kabila toured the mine and the company’s Process Tech-nology Center near Safford.
Monday, October 29, 2007
-->Kabila and a delegation from the Congo are scheduled to meet with President George W. Bush later this week.Freeport McMoRan is the managing shareholder in the Tenke Fungurume Project, which is building a copper and cobalt mine on a 600-square-mile site in the Congo.Construction on the mine began in 2006 and should be in operation by late 2008. President Kabila requested to visit a copper mine operated by Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. while he was in the U.S."

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC is "punished" by Congo situation

I was with Tenke Mining for many years: political risk was always there and will be always there. This was the only reason I could buy this one at 0.9 CAD.
Interpretation of this risk is what matters for the stock price. My own personal take is that all these "news" are actually positive for Lundin Mining. Only if someone is investing after Mad man on BubbleTV sad Buy and without any DD this will be out of the blue.
Revision of all mining licenses in DRC are taking place from the very beginning of this year: you can find information on this blog: just search Tenke mining. Even Doug Casey once has put Tenke Mining on SELL because of it...at 5.o CAD. Should I remind you the price of TNK.to last April?
Actually now information from management is confirmed: Tenke Fungurume is not under question of termination. Renegotiation is another story and could certainly happen, but before you will sell in panic give it a thought:
1. Just check the value of the resources in Tenke Fungurume and discount by the market value of it in Lundin mining. Find conditions of the deal on this blog.
2. If conditions will be different - then previous uncertainty will be resolved and actual value, even still with Congo country risk, will be much higher. NPV of the project assumed long term copper prices of 1.0 USD. Value of Tenke Mining for Lundin Mining based on 8 cents for lb of Cu in the DRC ground. Extension of the resource base was never announced after latest drilling: I will guess that news will come out after "renegotiation".
3. "Renegotiation" are already well under way: Kabila - President of DRC, has visited Washington within last two weeks and met with G.W. Bush. Freeport-McMoran FCX is not a small company: they must have their own connection. There is some information (do not Trade on this one) that it is possible that people who looks like Kabila, his Minister of Defence and Minister of Mines have visited FCX properties in part of former Phelps Dodge which was recently acquired by FCX.
4. There are also some very important provisions in the Tenke Mining and former Phelps Dodge agreement on Tenke Fungurume: if capital required for putting Tenke Fungurume into production will exceed 25% PHD and now FCX will be responsible for all overcup.
As usual all this information does not contain any investment advise and only my thoughts on this particular situation.
If you will insist my advise will be only to read CS and that if you are on a margin or have put your house in ANY stock in the market SELL immediately. In all other cases obtain all information and then entertain yourself with your own thoughts and decisions.
The news could be found here:

Friday, November 02, 2007

Fed pumps $41B into US financial system

US Dollar is getting nowhere but down...

"WASHINGTON (AP) - The Federal Reserve pumped $41 billion into the U.S. financial system Thursday, the largest cash infusion since September 2001, to help companies get through a credit crunch...
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which carries out the central bank's open market operations, moved Thursday to inject $41 billion in temporary reserves into the U.S financial system. It came as part of ongoing efforts designed to ensure that the markets -- which have suffered through a period of turbulence over the last few months -- function smoothly. The cash infusion came in three separate operations.
A New York Fed spokesman said it was the largest single day of operations since $50.35 billion was pumped into the system on Sept. 19, 2001, following the terror strikes on New York and Washington. He declined further comment."
Now you can understand magnitude of financial disaster and melt down in Sub prime market. New supply of dollars with less demand will lead to further depreciation of the US dollar. It will bounce time from time, but general direction is down. Indication by the Market with yesterday's sell off after FED Rate Cut show us that Bull liquidity story has ended and in order to keep thing just from falling apart in financial sector further rates will follow and Gold, Silver and Commodities will fly.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Newmont Mining weekly: spot the difference



This is still Bullish chart. Like I have sad before I am expecting Gold and Silver stocks to decouple from General markets like it happen in 2002. With general markets drifting down and sideways Goldies will take a new highs. MACD Buy intact, RSI positive and rising.

China FXI daily is at SELL.


Will China's economy break down - I do not buy this theory: it is planed economy with capitalistic approach with huge driving force of urbanisation and leap frog forward in infrastructure. This Dragon will be eating commodities for years to come. Will China's stock market correct? It is not a question for me - the only dot left is when...
Dayli SELL: RSI falling down, MACD Sell.

Google GOOG ...I know, I know - "this time it is different".


This is still a barometer of Investment Madness in WEB 2.0 bubble to watch. Untill this stock corrects to its "more reasonable level" of 30-40 FCF we will be still in a bubble state. Unhealthy expectations of next 20% upside with potential 50% downside are driven by liquidity, but it is quickly drying out...
The last time Warren Buffet sad in China: Google is great company and its easy to see it, but valuation is different: at 200 billion MC (it was before recent run) just to deliver 14% p.a. return to shareholders it needs to reach valuation of 400 billion in five years.
I have run the numbers again with GOOG at 694USD its market cap was 217 bil. Now MC/FCF=74.8! CAPEX has decreased from 597 to 553 mil in 2007 Q3 from Q1. Assuming at least the same CAPEX (hitting competition, Video - new storage blades ets.) FCF margin is 25.6%. In order to reach "normal valuation to MC/FCF=30") with return of 15% p.a. in five years time FCF must be 14.6 bil! and Revenue 57 bil! It means 30% growth year over year without any CAPEX growth extension. Google will reach MC of 437 bil in this case. Is it possible with economy marching into recession? I do not think so, but even if you are optimist here it is 15% per year with all risks of downside of one trick pony business and hitting competition. To give the idea of "normal MC/FCF valuation" Royal Gold RGLD will need to double overnight just to get there.

Research In Motion RIMM daily is at SELL


RIMM is daily at SELL: MACD SELL, RSI is falling down.

Apple AAPL daily is overbought, uprun is overextended: could turn on a dime.

Move up is overextended, any drop down will create Sell on MACD and stock will be due for correction.

S&P SPY daily is at SELL


SPY is at SELL daily: MACD still Sell, RSI is falling. Financial fall out has just began we will witness a lot of staff taken out of the closets.

DOW DIA daily is at SELL


DIA SELL at daily: MACD is stll SELL, RSI is falling.

NASDAQ TEC QQQQ dailly is at SELL


New highs are not confirmed by RSI, MACD is at SELL, SLOW STO overbought, volume is lower at new High.

Newmont Mining upgraded by RBC Capital

1-Nov-07 RBC Capital Mkts Upgrade Underperform Sector Perform

Markets are getting Nervous: VIX is rising


Markets are very close to panic mode: VIX is rising. "Buy" signal is still valid: MA50 cross over MA200 from August. Once crowd will realise that FED is NOT CUTTING RATES when everything is perfect, they are cutting rates to SAVE economy from melt down in Housing Market Collapse and Credit Crunch, the game with music chairs will begin. Rate Cuts are positive for Gold, Silver and Commodities I am expecting HUI and XAU - Gold and Silver mining companies to decouple from DOW, S&P and Nasdaq as it happen in 2002.
Positions PUT on DIA, SPY, FXI.

We have "Buy" on VXN: Volatily will rise with Tec melt down

Note MA50 is in "Bullish" cross of MA200, MACD at "Buy" and RSI is positive: Nasdaq Volatulity index is going higher. Positions PUT on QQQQ, AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, HHH, SMH

Rainy River RR.v Announces Correction to Option Exercise Price

"VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 1, 2007) - Nelson W. Baker, President and CEO of Rainy River Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:RR - News) announces a correction to yesterday's news release which stated that the Company has granted a total of 510,000 stock options to directors, officers, employees and consultants in accordance with the Company's stock option plan. Each option is exercisable into one common share of the Company for a period of two years at the price of $5.25, rather than $4.25 as was stated in yesterday's release. Any shares acquired upon exercise during the first 4 months of the term of the options will be subject to a hold period expiring on March 1, 2008."
Now it makes sense: latest Placement was at 5.2 CAD.
Infrastructure is there, grades are fine: this one will move from now on.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Newmont Mining NEM is flying today

Calls NEM 45 Jan o8 is Up another 80% today.

This is called leverage to the Gold Price:

"8:35AM Newmont Mining beats by $0.47, beats on revs (NEM) 46.44 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings from continuing operations of $0.72 per share, $0.47 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 49.4% year/year to $1.65 bln vs the $1.41 bln consensus. Co is narrowing outlook for equity gold sales to between 5.2 and 5.4 million ounces at costs applicable to sales of between $400 and $430 per ounce for 2007. "

"APNewmont Mining 3Q Earnings Double"


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/earns_newmont_mining_corp.html?.v=3

Avino Silver & Gold Mines ASM.v update

Slowly but surely Avino is moving close to 43-101 resource estimate. Two drills now are working on San Gonzalo deposit on Avino's Durango Mexico Property. Market Cap of the company now representing ONLY the value of production assets without any credit for mineral resources. It looks like a real bargain at this level: stock is totally forgotten and is bottoming out at double bottom.

New drilling results:

Avino Continues to Receive Encouraging Drill Results on Durango's Mexico Property

Friday, October 19, 2007

Google GOOG Earnings: Growth rate slowed further Valuation is Insane.

Google managed again to get amusement of the crowd by beating expectations, but the truth is that from now on the higher it goes the harder will it fall.

Growth rate slowed further to 57% Y/Y from 58% in Q2, and 63% Q1. Licencing and other revenue is still miserable 1%. Company has only one revenue stream and continue to be "a one trick pony". International revenue brought 48% and Google nicely profited from falling USD:
"International Revenues - Revenues from outside of the United States totaled $2.03 billion, representing 48% of total revenues in the third quarter of 2007, compared to 44% in the third quarter of 2006 and 48% in the second quarter of 2007. Had foreign exchange rates remained constant from the second quarter of 2007 through the third quarter of 2007, our revenues in the third quarter of 2007 would have been $24 million lower. Had foreign exchange rates remained constant from the third quarter of 2006 through the third quarter of 2007, our revenues in the third quarter of 2007 would have been $121 million lower."
Net Income margin is slightly higher at 25% of Revenue vs 24% in Q2 and lower then 27% in Q1.
Google managed to increase its Free Cash Flow to 1.1 billion USD from 0.7 billion in Q2, but it was "spiced" by reduced CAPEX to 0.55 billion from 0.58 in Q2 and 0.6 in Q3.
Revenue per Head has declined to 266 000 USD from 281000 in Q2.
It could be all very good news on solid company performance, but if you look at valuation at 640 stock is valued at ... 70 times Free Cash Flow (trailing). What is "normal"? - just 30-40 according to "value" analyst Henry Blodget. Even if Google will be granted 40 ratio for its market leader status its share price should be at around ... USD 367.
With all risks related to recession and ongoing competition Google's new target price at 800 by 2008 year end is "only modest" 23% increase from USD650.
Should the stock continue to rise on recent hype over USD650 it will be in parabolic move and I will build my put positions again.
Until Google corrects to "conservative" levels of valuation, market bubble will be growing and its burst after housing crash will be remembered for years.

More on Earnings to follow.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Silverstone Resources SST.v Presentation

New Silver Wheaton SLW in the making:

http://www.silverstonecorp.com/_resources/SST_Presentation_Oct_12.pdf


Notes:

1. Major shareholders Capstone Mining CS.to 22% and Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC 19%.
2. John Wright business development: Co-founder of Pan American Silver.
3. Resources 367 Moz of Silver (including all categories plus historical).
4. Fixed cost of Silver at 3.92 USD/Oz.
5. Based on 2011 production 98% discount to Silver Wheaton valuation.

Target price CAD 6.0

Upside drivers:

1. New deal on Silver Revenue Stream.
2. Existing mines resource expansion (recently announced by Lundin Mining plus 300 000 oz production from 2011 plus to recent 850 000 Oz)
Today's Capstone Mining Cozamin : Capstone Increases Resources to 8.6 Million Tonnes at the Cozamin Mine. "- The resource update yields a 47% increase in tonnage with a 51% increase in contained copper and 54% in contained silver."
3. Rising Silver price.

More on Silverstone Resources SST.v:

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/search?q=silverstone

Google WEB 2.0 Bubble: Value Click - not so much value left.

Stock VCLK is down 10% now. Is it company specific problems or Sub prime mess made its way in online advertisement market already?
"The company now expects quarterly sales between $156 million and $157 million, compared with previous guidance of between $155 million and $165 million.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect sales of $159 million.
Revenue was hurt by continued weakness in lead generation, which is the process of collecting contact information and potential sales leads, offset by better-than-expected results in the comparison-shopping segment."

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Gold Bugs Index HUI Double Top Break Out


The sector will be driven by:
1. Falling US Dollar and rising Gold price.
2. Consolidation: Majors are starving without reserves.
You can find on this blog why exploration trends will make Juniors are most valuable assets in this Bull Market.

Silver Rocket is on the Launch pad


Please mention delay in Silver break out at phase I regarding to Gold break out charts on previous post.

Gold Double Top Break Out




Saturday, October 13, 2007

Google GOOG, WEB 2.0 Bubble, Gold and meditation on emothions and when to quit. CS.

One reader has put very important observation and question:
"Anonymous said...
You have been wrong on GOOG for the past 500 points. When are you going to give it up? Should it fall, taking a victory lap at this point should not be warranted."
This is my response which will go right into Common Sense Secrets of Trade - CS.
It is very important! For me first of all, then for those who are following. It is like in the plane with oxygen mask, same routine.
You should never Marry your stock, or even worse: start to Hate one. This is the ticket in the first class to poor house. (First class is because it is very expensive).
There are great businesses and not so and there are stocks and their prices: representing valuations of those businesses by Investment Crowd. Judgement of the crowd is hardly ever right: we never have all information, it is distorted by "official" figures (if you really think that there is no INFLATION - save your time), Bubble Media and specially blessed people like Mad Guy.
My business is to find those that are having very low valuation and those that are having very high one. Then you can build your case and invest accordingly: accumulate for your Core positions (90%) undervalued assets with IHPV (Insainly High Potential Value) which are in multi year bull market (Gold, Silver and Commodities) and maybe trade with LIMITED possible loss (puts) those that are at the peak of their performance (Google, as you know, I have allocated to this kind of stock).
Why should I give up? It is not a competition, it is my observation and opinion. I am putting some money in this particular play: only what I can afford to lose, read CS if you really care. I have made some money on my puts and lost some, more on this particular trade.
But my personal record does not affecting Google valuation in any way. The main factor is that we are now in late stage of a Bubble: the higher it goes the harder will it fall. Now the stock is in parabolic rise without any fundamental reason. It is madness and insanity of investment crowd that brought stock to that level. Company is "great" (remember Enron - it was also great until CEO quit in August and Enron busted in November. So far we had "only" CFO "Retired" rather suddenly) - valuation of that company is crazy and unsustainable, guys (Larry and Sergey) must be praying that it will stop rising so fast: nothing in the world could stop fear when confidence is lost. It will bring company down with its stock. Fear is more powerful feeling than even greed.
Regarding my personal record I am making very good money in my core positions, did very good with puts in August on Tec, Home builders, QQQQ, DIA and SPY and closer to make money on WEB Bubble 2.0 as never. Sold out puts and bought calls on NEM, RGLD and SLW - all was posted here. Calls on NEM, SLW and RGLD are above plus 100% mark and I took some profit already. I was able to accumulate, when there was "blood on the streets" in Junior mining sector in August and I was blessed to reach my goal for this year now and standing at all time high. The goal was very high and I thought that I can not make it, but with the help of this exercise I made it. This is the reason why I am taking your question so seriously. I will do my homework in order to defend my achievement for this year at least and preserve my capital.
The main point is not to lose money. If you made some in Google, great - take profit and find new Real Bull Market within Trade of this Decade, read CS, Gold and Silver on this blog. Mission of this blog is to help you to think and do not chase last 20% of the Bubble, but to go to there where 80% percent left. If you are not convinced - fine, do not invest in juniors, gold and silver, but just do not lose your money, leave them for your kids it will be your best investment.
Like I have put before: always ask - Why?
I am the one of the greediest person in the world: I need you and your money to drive the Great Bull market of the decade. You are reading it now, you will come back in one year. You will start to think, ask questions and listen. Than you will make your own decision, but it will be yours not of the Mad Guy. If we will be able to get out when only 20% will be left - you will send me Xmas card.
Three most important things in investing:
My Bearish Case on Google:
``It's scary if that ever started to go wrong.'' Bloomberg
"As Its Stock Tops $600, Google Faces Growing Risks" The New York Times