Tuesday, October 10, 2006

WEB 2.0 turns into BUBBLE 2.0 Google buys YouTube

On this deal WEB 2.0 has turned into bubble 2.0. Google has admitted that inside nothing substantial could be created, the main logic was "if we will not buy it MSFT or AHOO will! And then what...Google will vanish? Where is all that brand strength, dominant market share? The truth is it is one stream revenue business, competitors just ONE CLICK away, cost switch for customer Zero. Look at their CC about the deal: company is under hit of contracting revenue growth and most importantly FCF, which will bring valuation and stock price down. The most interesting for me is how they are going make this q, numbers are gonna be very thought to meet.

Please note that in my EPS estimation below I have used all current trends in spending but revenue growth is +12.5% Q3/Q2 and +17%(!) Q4/Q3 they manage to make only +9% on Q2/Q1.

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